The Indus Water Treaty, one of the most successful water agreements, symbolizes a resilience between India and Pakistan. Despite several wars and cross-border terrorism, there were no changes or suspension of the Indus Water Treaty. But this time, India has suspended the key aspects of the Indus treaty, as a response to a Pahalgam terror attack. Here is a detailed look at the concept of the Indus Water treaty: its origins, its changes and the current status of the treaty, its impact on both countries.
The Origins of the Indus Waters Treaty
- Signed on September 19, 1960, in Karachi, the Indus Water Treaty was brokered by the World Bank between India and Pakistan, which systematically managed and shared the water from the six rivers of the Indus Basin. These rivers were the Indus, Jhelum, Chenab, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej.
- This negotiation was followed by more than a decade after Partition disrupted traditional water supply routes.
- Allocation as per the treaty:
India received exclusive rights over the eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej).
Pakistan got rights to the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab), though India was allowed limited non-consumptive use (hydropower, irrigation, navigation).
The systematic allocation of this treaty was considered as most generous water-sharing agreement, in which India was aggrieved to let Pakistan use 80% of the total waters of the Indus Basin.
How the Treaty Changed Over Time
Since it was signed in 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty has stayed strong even during tough times. Despite serious tensions between India and Pakistan, the agreement mostly worked well for over 60 years.
Key Challenges Over the Years:
- Three major wars between the two countries: in 1965, 1971, and the Kargil conflict in 1999
- Multiple terrorist attacks in India that were linked to Pakistan-based groups
- Ongoing disputes over Kashmir and regular ceasefire violations along the border
India’s Efforts to Keep the Treaty Running:
Even during these difficult periods, India followed the rules of the treaty and showed a lot of patience and flexibility. For example:
- Shared important flood data with Pakistan to help them prepare during monsoon season
- Discussed water projects like Kishanganga and Ratle with Pakistan, even though it wasn’t legally required
- Allowed inspections and third-party dispute resolution, such as through the World Bank, when disagreements happened
When Things Started to Change:
The situation began to worsen after a few major incidents:
- The Uri attack in 2016, where Indian soldiers were killed
- The Pulwama attack in 2019, which resulted in the deaths of 40 Indian paramilitary personnel
- India accused Pakistan of supporting cross-border terrorism, and trust between the two countries dropped sharply
After these events, India started reviewing its approach to the treaty, signalling that continued cooperation was not guaranteed if terrorism did not stop.
2025: The Breaking Point – Pahalgam Attack and Treaty Suspension
In April 2025, there was a brutal terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu & Kashmir, in which 17 Indian tourists and soldiers died, and it was pointed to Pakistan-based groups as perpetrators, escalating tensions dramatically.
In response to a huge loss, India announced a suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. As this suspension will show its impact after 2 or 3 years, but currently, here are some of the major changes that India has declared:
There will be a strong hold on flood data sharing with Pakistan, technical cooperation and bilateral commissioner-level meetings.
The country will start working on multiple storage and diversion projects on western rivers, which will slow down the water flow.
How India Is Benefiting from the Treaty Suspension
India has historically allowed 135 MAF (million acre-feet) of water to flow into Pakistan unimpeded. By altering flow or building storage infrastructure on its side, India gains hydrological control without technically violating the treaty. This suspension bypasses unnecessary official rules related to consultation with Pakistan. Due to the suspension of the Indus Water Treaty, Projects like the Ujh Multipurpose Project (Jammu), Bursar Dam (J&K) and Sawalkot Hydro Project are now tracked faster without any diplomatic delays or government decisions. Another benefit that India will get from this suspension will be a better utilisation of both eastern and western rivers for irrigation and hydropower.
How Pakistan Is Getting Affected
Immediate Impacts:
- Loss of Flood Forecast Data: India has stopped sharing critical flood-related hydrological information from upstream locations, which used to help Pakistan prepare for seasonal river floods.
- Water Dependency Crisis: Nearly 80% of Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture depends on the Indus Basin rivers. Changes in flow patterns or storage timing on Indian projects could:
- Disrupt sowing schedules
- Lower groundwater recharge
- Increase food insecurity and urban water stress
- Disrupt sowing schedules
Diplomatic Blow:
- Communication channels under the treaty (like the Permanent Indus Commission) are frozen.
- Pakistan loses international leverage since the treaty was seen as a rare example of Indo-Pak cooperation.
- Third-party mediation (World Bank) is not immediately accessible since India has legally not abrogated the treaty, only suspended operational cooperation.
1. Diplomatic and Strategic Measures
- Airspace and Border Closures: Pakistan closed its airspace to Indian airlines and suspended all trade with India, including transit through third countries. The Wagah border crossing was also shut down, and all cross-border transit from India was suspended, with the exception is for Sikh religious pilgrims.
- Visa Restrictions and Diplomatic Downsizing: All visas issued to Indian nationals under the SAARC Visa Exemption Scheme were also suspended. Indian Nationals in Pakistan were instructed to leave the country within 48 hours.
2. Legal and International Stance
- Condemnation of Treaty Suspension: Pakistan’s National Security Committee (NSC) treated India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty as “unilateral, unjust, politically motivated, extremely irresponsible, and devoid of legal merit,” which showcases the disagreement by Pakistan. The NSC emphasised that any attempt by India to suspend the flow of water of the Indus allocated to Pakistan under the Indus Waters Treaty would be considered an “act of war”.
3. Domestic Political Pressure
- Public and Political Outcry: Within Pakistan, there has been significant concern over the potential impact of India’s actions on agriculture and water security. Provinces like Punjab, heavily reliant on the Indus River system, have warned of a possible water emergency if flows are disrupted.
- Calls for International Intervention: Pakistan has also approached international bodies like the United Nations and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), to protest against the action taken by India and seek support in resolving the dispute.
India’s Flexibility and Historical Conduct
Despite its strategic upper hand, India has been exceptionally flexible over the decades:
- Never stopped water flows even during wartime
- Allowed Pakistan to inspect Indian projects frequently
- Shared technical documents well beyond treaty obligations
Even in 2023, India had agreed to a neutral expert process over the Kishanganga and Ratle hydro projects, showcasing its intent to stay within treaty boundaries.
Is This a Temporary Pause or Permanent Policy Shift?
While India hasn’t formally withdrawn from the treaty, the current suspension of cooperation is not symbolic. It showcases a calculated shift in India’s foreign policy, using water as leverage, not as retaliation, but as a pressure point for behavioural change. Besides this, it is also a possible long-term rethinking of the treaty, unless Pakistan demonstrates actionable curbs on cross-border terrorism
Unless Pakistan takes concrete steps to regain trust, the suspension could evolve into de facto disengagement.
Conclusion: Facts Speak, Not Sentiments
The Indus Waters Treaty, once a pillar of peace, now lies fractured, not because of water disputes, but because of terrorism-linked trust erosion. With India asserting its sovereign rights and Pakistan facing an agriculture-dependent water crisis, this moment in 2025 may be the most consequential year in the treaty’s history.
This isn’t about punishment or nationalism—it’s about the factual breakdown of cooperation under a framework that was built on mutual goodwill, which has now run thin. Only time will tell whether this is temporary brinkmanship or the beginning of a new water paradigm in South Asia. But one thing is clear: water, once a silent diplomat, is now part of the dialogue of power.
